Updated on September 24, 2018 10:44:27 AM EDT
There is nothing of importance taking place today here in the U.S., the only day of the week we can say that. What is having an impact on today’s bond trading are inflationary comments made by the European Central Bank (ECB) President that appears to hint at concern about future inflation rapidly strengthening there. It is relevant here because, if his words are accurate, it could help fuel rising inflation across the global economy. Since inflation is the number one nemesis for the bond market, we are seeing a negative reaction in early trading.
The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports to watch in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. The main focus of the week though will be the Federal Reserve and their extremely important mid-week events. Most of this week’s economic data is considered to be moderately important, but there is one report more important than the others.
Septembers Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick off this week’s activities, coming at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from last months reading, indicating that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month. This means they are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. That is favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 131.0, down from Augusts 133.4 reading. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.
Overall, Wednesday is the most important day of the week, particularly the afternoon hours due to the FOMC meeting, Fed economic projections and press conference. Thursday is worth consideration also. I believe we are going to see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and mortgage pricing this week. Therefore, please proceed carefully if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
©Mortgage Commentary 2018